Raleigh’s winter market has arrived with a completely different profile than last year. Headlines are loud right now, but they’re not always accurate. When you look at the right data—hyper-local, seasonally adjusted, and grounded in experience—the picture becomes clearer.

This winter is not a downturn. It’s a normalization. And for our market, that’s healthy.

1. Understanding What’s Really Changing This Winter

Inventory is up 37% year over year, the sharpest increase we’ve seen in a long time. That shift alone is enough to confuse anyone watching the surface-level numbers.

The Triangle is sitting at three months of supply—a true balance point.

• Below 3 months → extreme seller conditions
• Above 6 months → buyer-leaning
• Around 3 months → sustainable, healthy activity

After several years of extreme conditions, this return to balance is one of the strongest trends in today’s market.

2. The Two-Market Reality Behind Days on Market

You may have seen reports saying homes are sitting for 53 days. But averages hide the real story, especially now that Triangle reporting covers nine additional counties.

Two markets are operating at the same time:

• Well-priced homes: selling in about six days
• Over-priced homes: sitting 67 days or more

That split isn’t about zip codes or luck. It’s pricing strategy, presentation, and the marketing reach behind the listing. More than 54% of active listings have taken price reductions—evidence of mispricing, not market weakness.

A home only gets one chance at “new.” Strategy matters more than ever.

3. New Construction Is Driving the Winter Market

Right now, one in three active listings is new construction. Builders are leaning into year-end and Q1 positioning, and they’re offering incentives resale sellers simply can’t match:

• Bulk rate buy-downs
• Closing-cost support
• Upgrade packages
• Preferred-lender incentives

These incentives are strong enough to shift pricing trends. Overall prices are up 5% year over year, while resale homes are up only 1%. Builders are the ones pulling the averages higher.

For resale sellers, the competition isn’t just next door—it includes an entire segment offering thousands in incentives. What new construction can’t replicate, however, is your established neighborhood and location, and that shapes pricing strategy.

4. Buyers Have a Seasonal Window of Leverage

For the first time in years, buyers have real negotiation strength:

• 37% more inventory
• Only 12% of sales receive multiple offers
• Repair requests and concessions are back
• Builder incentives meaningfully reduce long-term loan costs

Winter has its own rhythm: casual shoppers step back, serious buyers step forward, and sellers value reliability. This window tightens quickly when rates move or spring activity begins.

5. Sellers Need Precision for Winter Success

The first 10 days of your listing shape your entire outcome. This is when visibility peaks and qualified buyers are watching.

When a listing is priced and positioned correctly, going under contract in about six days is still achievable. When pricing misses the mark, homes often sit 67+ days, and carrying costs climb while final pricing softens.

This winter, your resale home needs to stand out through condition, readiness, location, or a clear value story. Testing the market with a high starting price is the most expensive mistake of the season.

6. Winter Data Confirms Strength, Not Slowdown

Even with more inventory, buyers remain active:

• Showings are up 32% month over month
• Pending sales and home sales are up 11% year over year

People are still buying and selling—but they’re doing it with more thought and better strategy.

Raleigh’s fundamentals remain strong: job growth, population growth, and steady in-migration. This is not a collapsing market. It’s the first truly balanced one we’ve had in years.

One Line That Frames the Season

A balanced market doesn’t shout, but it rewards clarity and timing.

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