Triangle Market Intelligence | Fall 2025

The Triangle housing market continues to draw national attention, but the real story this fall is not hype. It is separation. Strategy is beginning to matter more than speculation, and the gap between prepared sellers and everyone else is widening.

1. The Big Picture This Fall

The Triangle market, including Raleigh, Cary, Durham, Chapel Hill, Wake Forest, Apex, and surrounding counties, has seen one of the largest inventory expansions in the country. According to the Triangle Business Journal, Raleigh led the nation in housing supply growth, up 54.5% year over year as of July.

Only Las Vegas, Miami, and Atlanta posted similar increases. This surge is being driven by two forces working at the same time: homeowners who delayed listing while waiting for rate relief, and national builders delivering large volumes of speculative new construction.

More listings do not automatically mean a weaker market. They mean the market is becoming more selective.

2. Price Drops and Inventory Shifts

Even with strong demand, price reductions are becoming more common:

• Resale homes: average price drops of 48% from original list price
• U.S. national average: approximately 21%
• New construction: down 38%

These adjustments are not being driven by lack of buyers. They are the result of unrealistic pricing, inconsistent agent strategy, and competition from new construction, which now represents as much as 60% of sales in parts of the Triangle.

Despite the price movement, inventory remains historically tight. Current levels are still nearly 66% lower than July 2011. This is not oversupply. It is a sorting market.

3. A Faster, More Selective Market Pace

What buyers and sellers consider “normal” has changed. Historically, six months on market was not unusual. Today, the Triangle is closer to 36 days.

Well-positioned homes are still moving quickly, especially in prime locations. One encouraging signal this fall is that activity is trending stronger than the first half of the year, which was flat but steady.

Turnover remains constrained in desirable neighborhoods, reinforcing the importance of preparation and pricing accuracy.

4. New Construction Versus Resale

National builders hold a meaningful advantage this fall. Through bulk financing and preferred lending relationships, they are offering incentives resale sellers cannot easily match.

• Average concessions increased from $10,000 in 2024 to $15,000 in 2025
• Rate buy-downs and closing cost support are shifting buyer behavior

Resale homes that miss the mark on pricing or condition are often withdrawn rather than adjusted. For buyers, this environment creates leverage. For sellers, it reinforces a simple truth: pricing strategy matters more than ever.

5. How to Win This Fall

This market does not reward guesswork. It rewards clarity.

• Price right the first time: the first 10 days on market produce the strongest list-to-sale ratios
• Prepare intentionally: condition and presentation matter more as buyers compare options
• Plan ahead for rates: when rates eventually move down, competition will return quickly

Positioning correctly now allows both buyers and sellers to act from strength rather than urgency.

Final Thoughts

Fall 2025 is an active, competitive season with both opportunity and risk. Buyers have more choice, sellers must be more precise, and strategy is separating outcomes.

This is not a market to follow headlines. It is a market to understand.

Authority Note

Marti Hampton Real Estate brings more than 30 years of resale leadership, over 10,000 successful closings, and one of the deepest professional networks in Greater Raleigh. The team’s structured, data-guided process helps Triangle buyers and sellers make clear, confident decisions in every market.