Triangle Market Intelligence is a recurring analysis of what's actually happening across the Triangle housing market, including Raleigh and the surrounding Greater Raleigh area. It's based on current data, long-term patterns, and decades of on-the-ground experience.

Instead of reacting to national headlines or generic forecasts, TMI focuses on local inventory, pricing behavior, buyer and seller decision-making, and the real forces shaping outcomes in the Triangle right now.

Over the past few weeks, one abnormal change has quietly reshaped buyer leverage and seller outcomes across the Triangle—and most people haven't noticed it yet.

Something Quiet Just Shifted—and Most People Missed It

Something unusual just happened in the Triangle housing market.

For the first time since before COVID, we've crossed into 2.4 months of housing supply.

That number matters more than interest rate headlines, election cycles, or national housing predictions.

Inventory drives leverage. Leverage drives behavior. And behavior determines outcomes.

If you're buying or selling right now, the playbook you learned between 2020 and 2022 no longer applies. The market is operating under a very different structure than it did during the pandemic years. Let me explain what that means.

How We Got Here: The Pandemic Wasn't Normal

The COVID housing market was historically distorted—not just competitive.

Remote work erased geographic boundaries almost overnight. People relocated quickly from high-cost metros, particularly from California and the Northeast. Raleigh became a destination, and inventory collapsed.

We dropped below one month of supply. Buyers had virtually no choices. Open houses wrapped around blocks. Contracts required large non-refundable due diligence deposits—sometimes into six figures—just to compete.

At the same time, 30-year mortgage rates fell to historic lows, hovering near 2.65%.

That environment trained buyers and sellers to believe urgency, overbidding, and aggressive terms were normal. They weren't. They were pandemic-specific conditions.

Today's market operates under very different dynamics. Builders expanded rapidly during COVID to meet unprecedented demand, pushing construction into secondary and fringe locations.

Now growth has slowed, and inventory built for peak conditions is meeting a more selective buyer pool.

The result is clear: location and condition matter more than they have in years.

The Real Change: Buyers Have Choices Again

This is the most important change—and the one most people underestimate.

Buyers finally have options.

When buyers have options, panic disappears. Negotiation returns. Selectivity returns. Leverage redistributes.

Demand hasn't vanished—it's become more disciplined.

And that changes everything about how homes are priced, marketed, and sold.

Well-located, well-priced homes are still selling quickly—often within 10 days. Average homes, particularly in less-established areas, are taking 40 days or more.

Same market. Very different outcomes.

What This Means for Buyers

If you're shopping right now, you have advantages you haven't had in years.

More inventory. More sellers who genuinely need to sell. Builders actively managing excess supply with real incentives—rate buy-downs, flex cash, and closing cost assistance.

In some communities, homes at the end of development are selling for less than comparable homes sold earlier in the same neighborhood.

This isn't theory. It's inventory management.

The smart move is to focus on the best location you can afford—even if that means buying smaller. Established neighborhoods. Proximity to employment centers. Areas with durable demand drivers.

These tend to hold value when markets slow and recover faster when markets strengthen.

Buying when others hesitate has always been a sound long-term strategy. This is the type of environment where that strategy has historically worked.

What This Means for Sellers

This is where the market gets unforgiving.

Approximately 50% of Triangle listings are now reducing price. That matters, because price reductions typically lead to lower final sale prices—not just longer days on market.

The pattern is consistent: homes priced correctly from day one sell faster and closer to list price. Homes priced optimistically often chase the market downward.

The biggest mistake sellers are making right now is anchoring to 2022 expectations. That market no longer exists.

Pricing is the most important decision you'll make. More important than staging. More important than upgrades. More important than marketing.

Correct pricing determines which category your home falls into.

Pricing correctly doesn't mean pricing high and hoping for emotion. It means grounding your price in what comparable homes have actually sold for in the last 30–60 days—adjusted for condition, location, and features.

The first two weeks matter most. That's when demand is strongest and perception is formed. Miss that window, and momentum becomes difficult to recover.

The second mistake is spending money in the wrong places. Not all improvements deliver returns.

Fresh paint and updated flooring improve first impressions and photography—and often deliver strong returns relative to cost. Large remodels often return far less than they cost.

Strategic preparation focuses on what buyers value, not what feels emotionally satisfying to change.

The Bottom Line

The Triangle is operating at 2.4 months of inventory—one of the most meaningful structural shifts since the pandemic shortage.

Buyers now have leverage they haven't had in years. Sellers who adapt can still win. Sellers who rely on outdated strategies will pay for it.

This market rewards realism, preparation, and experienced judgment. The rules didn't disappear. They changed.

And the people who recognize that early make better decisions.

Triangle Market Intelligence exists to help buyers and sellers across the Triangle make clearer decisions by understanding how the market is actually behaving—locally, right now.

Markets change. Patterns shift. Strategy has to move with them.